Tokyo . The price of rice in Japan has doubled over the past year, official data revealed Friday, underscoring a worsening cost-of-living crisis that is heaping pressure on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba just weeks before a critical parliamentary election.
According to government figures, rice prices in May soared 101 percent year-on-year, following significant increases of 98.4 percent in April and 92.5 percent in March. This spike in the cost of Japan’s staple food has been a major driver behind a broader inflation surge that is rattling households and challenging the government’s economic strategy.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, reached 3.7 percent in May — the highest level since January 2023 — up from 3.5 percent a month earlier. Even when excluding both energy and fresh food, consumer prices still rose by 3.3 percent, compared to 3.0 percent in April.
The rising cost of rice — a dietary cornerstone — has sparked widespread frustration, especially among low-income and temporary workers. “Since I’m a temp worker, my salaries have remained stagnant for years, and I see no sign of change in the years ahead,” said Chika Ohara, 52, in central Tokyo. “But prices are going up nonetheless and I feel the impact.”
Crisis Response and Political Fallout
In response to the rice crisis, the Japanese government took the rare measure of releasing emergency stockpiles starting in February — a step usually reserved for natural disasters. However, shortages continue to plague the market, driven by multiple factors:
A record-breaking heatwave and drought two years ago that severely damaged crops.
Hoarding by traders seeking future profits.
Panic-buying sparked by a government warning of a potential “megaquake” last year.
Energy prices have also surged: electricity bills rose 11.3 percent and gas fees climbed 5.4 percent in May, adding further pressure to household budgets.
With public dissatisfaction mounting, Prime Minister Ishiba has pledged cash handouts of 20,000 yen (around $139) per citizen, and 40,000 yen for each child, in a bid to win back support ahead of the upper house elections next month. His administration is under intense scrutiny after his coalition lost its majority in the lower house last October, following voter backlash over economic woes and political scandals. It marked the worst electoral showing for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in 15 years.
Monetary Policy Under Pressure
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been cautious in tightening its monetary policy. Although it has started reducing bond purchases, it left interest rates unchanged earlier this week, citing concerns over the economic fallout from ongoing global tensions — particularly the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, which is pushing global energy prices higher.
Economists are warning that the inflation surge is not matched by rising wages, meaning real incomes are falling. Stefan Angrick of Moody’s Analytics noted, “Policy flip-flops and delayed pass-through from producers to consumers mean inflation will slow only gradually. This will keep a sustained pickup in real wages out of reach, and with it a meaningful uptick in consumption.”
As inflation continues to squeeze Japanese households, the upcoming election will be a major test for Prime Minister Ishiba and the LDP’s long-standing grip on power.
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